Food Shortage Series Part 4

Course Correction—I Was Wrong

You know you’re in for a bumpy ride when I start out my article saying “PLEASE DO NOT PANIC”, right? Well hang on. And keep your screams muffled in front of the children as well as the non-preparedness-believing spouse, OK? You don’t want to undo any traction you might have gained recently, right?

OK, Folks. This whole food shortage series that I’ve been writing about the past few weeks—well, I was wrong. Sorry. Produce is not going to escalate at triple rates by the end of Spring.  Nope. It’s going to QUADRUPLE! Why do I say something so outlandish? Well, remember that I told you we have the makings of a perfect storm? Well, as it turns out there is a component that I did not tune into, and it’s a big one to “miss.” It’s so significant that it’s easily enough to send food into a hyperinflation much worse that I though. (Of course that’s never a term that you’ll hear our government use because they conveniently eliminate the two most volatile and universal of every family’s needs—food and fuel—from their “inflation” calculations. *sigh*) So up until now, there were still two more components that I wanted to address to this “perfect storm”. Frankly, I wanted to take a tiny little break from all of it. And as it turns out, it was a good thing I did because I would have had incomplete information.

It’s no secret that unemployment/underemployment is sky high. This means that more and more folks are reaching their hands out to the government for welfare.  Well, let’s remember where welfare benefits come from…taxes, right?  So, if people aren’t working they aren’t paying into the taxes, right? Problem—she says in a sing-song voice.

Next, city and municipal jobs are maintained because of taxes, sales and property taxes, right? Well, if folks aren’t buying as much as they used to, they certainly aren’t paying as much in taxes. And when it comes to property taxes, I think that there’s not a single person in the U.S. who would accept an INCREASE in the valuation of their property right now, do you? After all, we all know that we’ve been fleeced for a long time with inflated appraisals, right? So if they can’t increase the property taxes, then they can’t keep all of the programs in play for those who need them. Did I mention the other little tiny problem of the fact that since every sizeable city in the U.S. is losing their previous stellar credit rating because there’s finally been some reckoning of the financial disaster they are all in—and have been for a long time. Mind you that part of this whole credit rating decline has to do with Moody’s as well as Standard and Poor’s saving of face, since they played a serious role in the whole mortgage collapse by rating the mortgage packages of "no income, no credit score, no nothing" as stellar, no stink,  AAA. (But that’s a story for another time.)—Ruh roh!

So, now that the cities credit ratings have been lowered, they are no longer in a position to sell bonds to keep their cities operating. What? I thought that taxes we paid kept them going! Well that would be true only if we had city government that spends only what they earn.  But that’s such a passé, old fashioned kind of rule, isn’t it? Wait. It’s not really a rule. It’s more of a suggestion really. This inability to raise more money impacts schools, medical subsidies for hospitals, business subsidies, senior care, crops, universities, public safety service, communication technology, utility services, and so much of everything we take for granted in our homes. It also means that they won’t be able to honor those cushy little backroom deals they made with big companies in an effort to attract them to move into their city. I mean really, if you were running this kind of a circus and you had the multi-million dollar shortfalls this year, the first way to fix it is to wiggle out of the multi-million dollar tax deal you gave Corporation X as an incentive.

And now let’s look at the money generated by the tax on gasoline.  Just because the price is skyrocketing—and mark my words, you can expect a 1/3rd increase in the price you’re presently paying for gas this week within the next two weeks—doesn’t mean that there are more tax dollars being paid.  And since the price of gas is sky-flippin-high, then it means that people are going to cut back on fuel wherever possible.

OK. Not quite done yet, Folks. So you all know about the “mortgage bust” scenario, right? Chances are you’re a PART of the whole mortgage bust scenario. For starters please do not be disillusioned. It’s not over. I promise you it’s going to get worse—and not just on the residential side.  The reason being is that for every short sale or foreclosure that goes through, the banks actually make MORE money than if they finagle a loan modification.  You see, this little ‘ole organization known as the FDIC, guarantees that when they sell mortgages that were taken over when a bank is closed down, they will pay the new mortgage  holder 80-95% of the loss they will incur in the event that the home has to be sold via a short-sale or a foreclosure. Yes, I also am questioning why in the world the entity which is supposed to be insuring OUR assets/deposits, is now insuring the bad mortgages sold to other banks… So yes, this means that there’s absolutely no financial motivation for the banks to NOT foreclose on a property. But here’s the problem; the FDIC is already short on funds (which, in my personal opinion is exactly why we’ve seen the “close-fest” of banks cease abruptly. I assure you it’s not because they are suddenly running wisely and with good balance sheets.)  The FDIC bit off way too much too fast.  They get their money from the U.S. Treasury (aka taxpayers) as well as the banks themselves who pay into the FDIC. But wait, we’ve closed down so many banks, we don’t have as many banks to pay into the FDIC.  You see, the closing of banks was actually a sweetheart of a deal for the banks, believe it or not.  Only those persons who were seriously connected to the biggest of the big wealth were “privileged” to purchase the repossessed mortgage notes because it was such a sweetheart of a deal. But when the FDIC tried to put a huge administrative fee requirement on the banks that it was still protecting, they forgot all about the sweetheart deals and threatened a mutiny of sorts.  FDIC only has 1/10th of the amount of money that it presently insures. Hmmm…what happens if the FDIC goes bankrupt? You see, that whole “don’t worry folks, we’ll increase your FDIC coverage now to $250,000” thing was just for show because $250,000 times zero is still ZERO. But wait, there’s MORE.

So I’ve just described to you the residential mortgage fiasco. Now brace yourself because there’s about to be a horrendous commercial mortgage fiasco that will make the residential mortgage flub look like a missed line on the Carol Burnett Show—downright funny, with tears mixed in. At present there are over $1.4 trillion dollars worth of commercial loans that MUST be refinanced because they are coming due. Whether or not a commercial property owner gets approved for a loan is determined by the amount of income the property brings in. Yes, I said PROPERTY, not person.  So you could, in a weird scenario, have a wealthy billionaire running a failing restaurant but not be approved for a refinance because the business is failing.   So let me ask you this. How many business do you think are going to merit qualifying for a new commercial property loan after being beat up financially every which way for the last 3 years? Oh, and just one more little fly in the ointment. Commercial financing doesn’t go anywhere near as high of loan-to-value as residential mortgages do. And out of that $1.4 trillion dollars in loans that are being called due, over half of them are underwater. Yeah, this is about to get really ugly, not only from a financial crunch, but also in consideration of the fact that you’re going to start seeing an even larger number of commercial properties vacant. Commercial properties account for over half of all of the property taxes raised by any municipality.  Double Ruh-roh.

By the way, are you aware that there has NEVER been a crisis in our nation in which the FDIC was nearing bankruptcy?  Prozac anyone?

Do you see the picture I’ m creating here folks? We could easily get into a situation in which keeping the Federal Government running is the least of our worries. What will happen if we can’t even keep the doors open on our own municipalities?  Can the FDIC absorb all of the commercial mortgages like they did the residential ones; nope? This means that the banks have NO safety net. This also means that the banks which will be failing because of unpaid commercial mortgage balloons will continue to drop like flies.

Now take a moment and imagine the message that such a scene is going to send to people when they drive by their local police department and see only a few lights on? The parks with weeds up to the knees in the summer time; the city pool closed for lack of funds; the library with chains on the doors. Anyone want to see a repeat of snow removal that didn’t take place in NYC this year? How about all of those empty commercial buildings with nothing but hooligans hanging out exchanging the latest rage in “distraction and denial medication”? Combine that with the other factors they are seeing—formidable prices of food, fuel, clothing (don’t forget the 130% raise in cotton prices these past two months), etc.  This will have a very direct impact on your friends and neighbors that will be so surreal, no talking head on the evening news will be able to convince you otherwise, even with their contrived “report” of the Consumer Confidence Index.

Get ready, Folks. If we are blessed, SOME of this will not transpire. But if we are wise, we will be ready regardless. Remember, listen to your gut; don’t go crazy trying to get prepared in a frenzy—that doesn’t work. You’ve got to do this in tune with your core values and beliefs.  Peace in your preparedness.

Food Shortage Series Part I

Food Shortage Series Part II

Food Shortage Series Part III


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Comments

God bless us through these difficult times.

I am just thinking over and over in my head, peace in preparedness, thanks for all you do Kellene, and I'll keep plugging away at it!

Its been coming for a while and those of us that have been listening...have b een preparing. My family of 8 is almost there. 8 more 55 gallon plastic drums are being delivered this Friday. The same day I'm ordering my Crown Berkey. A whisper mill hand crank grinder and I'm done. Then its just bullets, bullets, bullets (I already have the food/medical/household supplies).

Thanks for all you do Kellene!

What's your address again? ;)

Hey Ron !!!A couple of suggestions---I have had some experiences that have taught me some real basic principles that perhaps can consider=======water--have a small water filter system that is portable, light and that can filter 100 plus gallons a day--if there is an earthquake yu might need to leave your home and your stored water will be nothing--there will be water but un-drinkable----this has been the problem all over the world---the best system I have seen is from Sawyer--12oz,never need to change filter, will filter 1 million plus, money back guarantee,wll filter 250 gallon per day---all done by gravity--no pumping--a great system-------ALSO, consider freeze dried food in the small plastic containers--one container can contain roughly 80 meals--just add water, weighs just a few pounds and your set--you need a decent tent----doing these few things will protect you family and will cost very, very little. As the days go by you'll eventually get back in your home and you can perhaps use the stuff. GOOD LUCK LARRY

So this is scary stuff and the way you've laid it all out is even easy for little old me to understand. This is what is meant when we've been hearing that our country will fail from the "inside out." Panicking isn't an option. Prayerful thinking and action is the only way to come out of this with our heads intact. Thanks again for explaining it so well.

Produce is skyrocketing right now. I buy it every week. Christmas time bell peppers were 2/1.00. 2 weeks ago I paid .99 each. This week $1.44 EACH. God help us all.

I am trying to suppress the panic that seemed to rise with each sentence I read. I know that MY family is prepared, but what about everyone who is not? I will be saying prayers to soften hearts and keep doing the things that I know are right. Thank you for keeping the interested public aware. I appreciate your work!

Remember the counsel is not to get everyone around you prepared. Neither was the commandment in Moses' time to put the blood of the lamb on everyone else's door. We simply need to be prepared for ourselves and then expect some heavenly intervention periodically. :-)

One of the big problems is that it is IMPOSSIBLE for everyone to get prepared. Even if everyone were aware and trying there would be no way it would happen owing to the simple logistics of everyone trying to acquire the means to be "prepared" at the same time. There will quite simply be millions of people left out in the cold when this scenario unfolds. All the more reason to be grateful to be on the inside track. It would be a big mistake to wish that everyone could suddenly start preparing. If that happened, it would precipitate panic and confusion that would bring us to to end of the world as we know it much faster and more violently than it is approaching now.

Respectfully Bill, I completely disagree with you. I believe that being prepared isn't just a good idea but is also wise counsel from our Heavenly Father. I don't think He ever gives a commandment/counsel with the understanding that it's only good for X number of people. The scriptures are very clear that He has "enough and to spare" for all of His children.
And by the way, on this blog, we're never about people "suddenly preparing." I've been teaching preparedness for over 12 years now, and writing about it for the last two. This particular article is a bit more "time sensitive" because I believe that a lot of what so many of us have been preparing for is about to come to fruition. Although, I will agree that if everyone were to wait and delay their obedience to wise counsel until the last minute, they will indeed have lost their opportunity.

Your point is a reasonable concern. Millions will be left out... but billions more will have a better chance of escaping some of the hardships.

Most legitimate revolutions (and preparedness is a revolution in thinking) are grass root causes which most likely started out thought of as being impossible to get everyone involved. And yet... because the premise was legitimate -- and committed, knowlegeable individuals were sufficiently dedicated to methodically spreading the word -- the specific concept grew until the issue established a life of its own. History records that people will frequently do more for true principles than they would ever imagine doing for anything else. The American Revolution itself, is a perfect example.

Along with our belief in the cause, there also needs to be action, just as faith without works is dead! Consequently, real preparedness is not a matter of just "wishing" it would happen, it is a conscious decision made by simply one person at a time being willing to assist one other person, in becoming aware of the necessity. Eventually... and hopefully in time, a great many will "GET IT!"

Just read this last night...
"God is just: He will pay back trouble to those who trouble you and give relief to you who are troubled,"
2 Thessalonians 1:6

If God didn't think it was wise for us to prepare he wouldn't give us the illustrations of the ants, who prepare and the virgins who are prepared with their lamps full...

we need to be prepared physically, in the sense that we can live off the grid but also spiritually, realizing we are the head and not the tail, that Christ defeated the devil on the cross and we really do have the authority to push him out. He's a bully who wants you to believe he's bigger than you, but we sit in heavenly places, we have the devil under our foot. Christians, WAKE UP to who you are in Christ and who He is in you. this battle is spiritual, spilling over into the physical and the way you win is in the spiritual realm, through the sword of the Spirit, the word of God. Learn it, read it, use it!.

Whoo - Hooo! Amen!
I can do ALL THINGS through Christ Jesus! And that includes preparing for whatever comes. My Father expects me to do my best, with what I have. And when I have done all I can, to stand. He will meet my needs now, and then, and for ever. But He does expect us to do what we can. Remember the man who buried the talent? His Master was very displeased with him.

Joseph saved millions of lives by listening to what God told him to do. He set enough food by to get through 7 years of famine. If he had not done that, his own family would have perished. He obeyed. The Word also says that the man who does not prepare for his family and take care of them, is WORSE than an infidel. I want to be a Proverbs 31 woman! ~ working with eager hands, bringing my food from afar, providing for my family, setting about my work vigorously, seeing that my lamp does not go out at night, opening my arms to the poor and extending my hand to the needy, etc.

Kellene, if one has a "nest egg" so to speak, would it be wise to spend it on things like tools, food, and a wood burning stove, since inflation will make the money worthless soon anyway? I'm torn between keeping a good amount in the bank in case our income stops, and spending it on supplies NOW before it loses it's value.

I always answer this question in the affirmative, Megan.

A friend I met on Facebook was in the same situation. She had some money set aside and was trying to decide what to do with it. Her husband wanted her to put up a small barn and buy a milk cow and a steer for beef. This is what she decided to do - and good for her! She will have milk and meat for her family and those in need. Sometimes it takes a leap of faith to do what is right. SO JUMP!!

No need to panic; indeed, little need to worry.
-Falling prices for commercial real estate is deflationary.
-Revenues for many state and local government are slowly rising as the economy gradually recovers.

Thanks, Summer. I needed a good laugh today. Who was your economics professor? Or perhaps you work for CNN? Hmmm...

Prove me wrong.

Unfortunately, Summer, I'm afraid you will be proven wrong. But hey, I'm sure you'll take comfort in the fact that you were entrenched in your interpretation of the facts. You do realize that "courage of convictions" doesn't go down easily when one is hungry, desperate, and afraid, right?

Geesh, why do people who think like you exist? (Rather--why do those thoughts exist within people??) What's more important--being "right" or being self-reliant? I just can't fathom any other kind of thinking other than taking responsibility for one's own needs.

By the way, your comment may have attempted to dismiss the commercial and municipality problem...so how do you dismiss the skyrocketing fuel prices, food prices, and the declining value of the dollar and increasing costs for clothing? Are those items in a deflationary state too? Never mind...it really was a rhetorical question.

Summer, I've spent hundreds of hours in an attempt to determine who is correct -- those who argue that we're facing hyperinflation, those who argue that we face just as deadly a specter in deflation, and those who contend we'll see stagflation, which is high inflation in consumables and deflation in assets like real estate. You're a curious sort, however, in that you appear to argue in favor of a deflationary outcome while simultaneously claiming that the economy is recovering. Aren't those outcomes contradictory? Preparedness is prudent in any of the above scenarios save the pollyannaish one you seem to advocate, to wit: everything will be alright because, because, well, it has always been and it will always be!! Moreover, I would vigorously dispute that state and local revenues are rising. Rather, it's just the opposite. Witness the grabs by states and local municipalities who are desperately attempting to replace revenue lost from the real estate crash by cutting pension benefits or even, in extreme cases, filing Ch. 9 bankruptcy.

I have said nothing about preparedness. It tickles me to be criticized by the imagination of others. Rather then assign to me a position on predaredness, let me state that I agree that preparedness is prudent.
Banks will take a servere hit on commercial real estate loans and some banks will not survive. This is deflationary, but will not destroy our economy. The US economy has improved. We are in better shape today then we were last year. This is not contradictory. Has there ever been a period in American history when every economic sector increased and no sector decreased?

Summer/Sunshine, I think you might want to lay off of the drugs. *wink* Typically the commercial real estate scenario you describe can be deflationary. But you are missing some very critical information in making your assumption that this case will be "deflationary." The key to it being a deflationary factor is the property values going down and thus the "hay day" can commence for those with money. However there's a missing link. We have deflationary from the stand point that the property values are going down, but you have a very, very small pool of wealth in a position to take advantage of it. FDIC is NOT in a position to save the day in this instance.

Your claim that the economy has improved is absolutely absurd, with no foundation of logic, Friend. I'm sorry, but that's simply a fact and I'm clueless as to what you have vested (emotionally or financially) which causes you to cling to such an absurd notion. I guess I'm naive or don't get out much because it never ceases to amaze me when I come face to face with a person who believes as you do. Good grief, have you not heard Bernanke, Buffet, Soros, and a litany of other "experts" support exactly what I've shared? Even Bernanke himself said that our economy has NOT bounced back as hoped and as such we should expect to see another 3 years of recovery. You might have better luck trying to tell me the sky is green than to have me believe for a moment that you actually believe that the economy has improved. As well informed and educated as I am on domestic and international matters of finance, I'd have an easier time believing you were an alien from Mars who's struggling with their grasp of the language than to believe that you actually believe this nonsense you're posting.

What economic sectors are you implying have increased? No sector decreased?? Holy cow. I can stand out my front door in a quiet little residential community and see evidence of several sectors decreasing.

Your comments are either fool-hearty, devious, or argumentative. The only reason I have allowed them to be posted is so that my readers can see the reality of "Exhibit A"-- aka a real, live fool. I'm sorry. I take no delight in calling it this way. But the thoughts and perceptions that you've conveyed are the very reason why the impact of the crisis is heightened. It's truly very, very sad.

Seriously??!?? What country are you in, Summer?

I 'm not saying it is a bad idea, I'm just saying it won't and can't happen "now", as in a short time frame, for a great mass of people. It is a moot point anyway, as the great mass of people will not head the call regardless of the origin of the call. And I still believe that if the masses did head the call, chaos and violence would insue, simply because the "masses" would begin their preparation based on panic and fear rather than an orderly process. Trying to educate the masses has never been a endeavor that met with much success. Kellene, I don't think your message is for the masses. It is for people who have been prepared, by whatever means, to hear it and head it.

Ah, now I understand you, Bill. Yes, in fact my greatest concern is that there are scenarios now here and elsewhere in the world where it is literally impossible to get prepared--in those instances, the Bridegroom has already come, so to speak. (No, I don't mean literally folks, was just referring to the parable.)

Yes, mass "preparedness" for a whole years worth of supplies right now would indeed cause chaos. That's why I keep telling folks there's no such thing as "emergency preparedness." Every time a hurricane is coming to shore, or a snow storm is predicted, we get to see the inept efforts at folks trying to implement "emergency preparedness." *sigh.

True, so true! I'm one of the few who isn't madly dashing to the grocery store among the chaotic crowd who are fighting to get the last can of potted meat, batteries or case of bottled water. On the Gulf Coast the wise folks already have their supplies at the ready MONTHS BEFORE the storms are heading our way. It makes no sense at all to argue the point that we have no real way of predicting the "ifs," we should just assume and be ready for the "whens" that disaster is going to happen. The grasshopper was foolish and laughed at the ant and then who had the last laugh in that story? Sad that there are those who scoff at our hard work. The Good Book says that we won't know the hour or the day and we should be ready--this not only applies to the Second Coming, but also to the unknown evils that await our complacence with gleeful anticipation. I refuse to give those evils the satisfaction of making me afraid. I win, they lose...Bwaah ha ha!

Summer is obviously not one of those educated and prepared to hear the message. I wish her well and would not condescend to argue her logic.

Preparing is good-I do it myself-Remember though the government will have it's nose in everything. During WWII my Grandmother Daniels(A GOOD Morman) in Swan Valley, Idaho purchased a few cans of food from the Church and had to give "Government Ration Stamps" to do so.

See that's what preparedness is about. If you're prepared then you can say to heck with the government ration stamps, right?

And then again there's the "I do it myself with a certain steel nose" if necessary to combat the not so subtle noses of others. ahem...

I think I would get the government ration stamps so that I wouldn't stand out as being 'someone who doesn't need them'. I would get them to blend in with everyone else; and then I would either trade/barter with them or give them to someone in need. Drawing attention to ourselves is the last thing we want; and by NOT getting them the government/community might just want to know why...
What do you think?

I agree with all three of your comments, especially Encourager. I've been telling my kids that as things progress, they need to begin rationing their food, not just to save on the food they have, but to ensure that they don't look more "healthy" that others who don't have food, and get targeted. I feel we will need to "fit in" as much as possible, which includes getting government ration stamps if necessary.

Personally, I wish I could have started this round of prepping a lot sooner, but I guess better late than never! My ex husband had always scoffed at my prepping habits, but what I had accumulated fed myself and my children through a pretty devastating divorce four years ago. Needless to say, supplies were getting low last year, but I was so busy with work, school, a wedding and a new baby that there was scarcely time or money to do very much.

I am so thankful for my new husband, who not only gets this stuff but is also extremely resourceful in areas I'm not. Together we are prepping the best we can for our family and thanking God for every extra day we have to prep some more. I am also thankful for finding great resources like this site. The guidance and information is great and is helping us "catch up" as best we can.

May God help us all as we strive to follow His words and warnings. I can't help but feel that being prepared not only blesses us but puts us in a position to bless others too. And that is my prayer and my center these days: "Lord, bless me, so that I may bless others!" Suddenly the panic is gone, and I can feel peace, even as I drive by the gas station!

I believe we are going to have the worst of both worlds. I believe we are seeing deflation of our assets and inflation on the things we need to be able to live. This is actually the worse case scenario and would destroy our economy the most.

Kellene, I argued quite strongly with my newly graduated niece who is now a paralegal about the coming troubles. Every point I brought up she countered with statements like " Oh every president has done stuff like that" or "there is no way something like that can happen in the US". I was so upset with the blind complete ignorance of what the world really is like that I had to just stop talking with her about it. But she is a perfect example of so many of our youth today that just refuse to see whats right in front of their faces. We cannot even convince our own children to prepare regardless of all the evidence around them. You are right that you cannot convince those who refuse to see. We are preparing with every spare cent as we are lucky enough to be mortgage free. We are way ahead of most as we have been working hard for 2 long years. Thank you for all the great insight and information. I look forward to your columns very much. They are the first ones I read in my email.

Wanda, I understand. I have been so blessed because it was my oldest, single son who directed me to preparing. He turned 29 today. Two years or so ago, he gave me the book 'Patriot'; after I read that, I realized the unrest that has been in my soul for a few years - every time the news came on, every time the unemployment stats were reported; my hubby was forced to retire early, my youngest son could not find a job, not even part time, for the summer when he was home from college - the company he worked for went out of business. I have been uneasy for years. To be on the same page with those closest to you is such peace! My hubby is finally on board and although he leaves most of the planning to me, he is by my side putting things away, coming up with new storage ideas, etc. We have a long way to go, but as someone else said earlier, every day it has not hit the fan is one more day we have to prepare some more.
Kim, you have the right prayer. That one always brings peace and calmness.

I went to our local farmers market today to get lettuce for a green salad. Paid $2 for a spindly bunch of green leaf and another $2 for some spinach. The fellow said the red leaf was so awful he refused to buy it as half of it would have to be thrown out. He also said eggplant was $60 a case so he didn't buy any. Shortages? Yes.

I am interested in buying a solar oven. Is anyone familiar with the sport model from the solar cooking society? I have sterno and several tanks of propane for my grill but storing much more than that is a problem. I like the idea of a passive heat cooking system. I would be interested in hearing opinions...

Last summer Elder Huntsman warned stake leaders in the Nashville area that the economy would get much worse and encouraged people to be prudent in their finances. (My husband was at the meeting.)

A friend of mine is an attorney and in his continuing ed training, the federal judges of the bankrutpcy courts said the next wave of forclosure to hit would be as all those crazy 110% loans and interest only loans with a 5 year balloon started coming due this past fall. They said it would start in California and sweep east.

But of course, all of this is just fine. There's nothing to worry about. Things are well and good, right? Some folks think that 5 inches of water around their ankles in their living room is normal too though, I guess. :-)

I got a SOS over last year and love it! Mine came with 2 pots and a water purifier. It was easy to use, cooks quickly and is very sturdy. I highly recommend it.

Just yesterday art our stake conference we were once again highly encouraged to be prepared and practice provident living.

I too believe that we have not seen the end of the foreclosures and bankruptcy wave and it isn't going to be pretty.

Heavenly Father wants us to take this seriously and prepare every needful thing.

Um, I don't believe it came with a water purifier, did it? Aren't you referring to a WAPI?

Thank you Kellene. I live in open range country. There's at least one bovine on my place when I returned home tonight. Maybe that's an omen? :)

Preparedness is more than just having food to eat. you must also have EVERYDAY supplies that we take for granted. Also have you been tracking the price of silver bullion lately . It is skyrocketing , the everyday joes gold.

I truly enjoy your work here Kellene and look forward to each, even my wife is starting to pay more attention .

Summer/sunshine I feel sorry for you in your blissful state. I have neighbors that are like you . It is going to get very ugly very soon .

These scoffers around us will probably be coming around wanting food before it's all over. If there's any to spare, they might get some - but they're also going to get an earful.

So many people I talk to - my pastor and many others - say they don't want to live in fear. They say God is our provider (true) and that it shows a lack of faith if we "hoard" food (not true) and that we're supposed to not give any thought to tomorrow. I ask these same people if they buy food for the week when they get groceries? That means they're "giving thought for tomorrow." Do they plan their meals for the week according to what's on hand? They're "giving thought for tomorrow." Do they send their kids to college? They're "giving thought for tomorrow." That verse was talking about worrying, anyway.

No one with any sense "puts their faith in their preps." We know it could be stolen, "confiscated," blown away in a tornado, ruined by insects, broken, etc. But it's more likely that it will be put to good use, by us. In any case, I feel with all the knowledge we have, it would be utterly foolish and irresponsible to not do any preparing.

So they expect you to just do nothing because God will take care of us? What about if someone is shooting at you? Are you just going to keep walking the same speed, saying if you run it means you're living in fear? No, you will drop or run. God expects us to use common sense.

Well said!

Marlene, thanks for your post. I needed to hear that today

Kellene, Thank-you for such an insightful, hopeful, and encouraging website. Even though it hints of bad things to come, the hope and spiritual nature prevail. I would like to suggest we are all given gifts, not for ourselves, but for the Kingdom. As individuals, learn as many old time skills as you can, canning, dehydrating, seed saving, basic repairs,basic medical skills, food preparation, etc. You get the picture. The more skill you know, the greater asset you are to your community. This is not a time to be isolated. Lone soldiers will not fair well. Be with like minded and always maintain faith. Blessings to all. Learn your gifts, and share all you can.

Mountain House has a message on their web site that they are not selling #10 cans at this time. Some of the sites that I order from monthly say that it may take up to 3 months to get some items. My local grocery stores have empty shelves by the end of the week.
These things indicate, to me, that the panic buying has begun and that we may see real shortages soon.
Peace & patience to us all.

This is the second source that I'm hearing this information from. So far, my research says it checks out. Keep your chins up folks.

I joined a food club (food co-op) this month. My first order was not completely filled because things were 'back ordered'. And I mean 1/3 of what I ordered! Thank God I got the 75# of wheat berries I ordered! The fresh produce order was minimal - they either were out or it was such poor quality, they didn't accept it. Did some grocery shopping yesterday at a major chain. There were many blank spots on the shelves. I noticed the quality of the produce was way below what it used to be.
I am ordering some apple and peach trees to put in this spring. Last summer when my hubby and I drove through our rural area, we took out a map and started marking it when we found wild goodies - asparagus, raspberries and blackberries, wild grapes. That map will come in handy this summer.

I was in Aldi yesterday and almost all the fresh produce was gone. Customers kept asking the manager if there was more stock in back and he said no, without further explanation. I've also noticed that Emergency Essentials is out of the #10 cans, and Honeyville Grain was out of their #10 assortment packs yesterday. I ordered wheat from them and just hope I actually get it.

I just have to laugh at the naysayers out there. Sure it looks like unemployment is coming down but it doesn't count the many who have run out of benefits and hope. In today's L.A. Times there is an article that says that 20% of Californians struggle to feed their families. The national average is 18%. California is #16 and Mississippi is #1 at 28%. I am in my sixties and cannot ever remember a time when so many people in this country are going to bed hungry every night. My parents and grandparents talked about the "Great Depression" but despite having big families, they never went hungry because they engaged in the very habits promoted by Kellene. Listen up people. It cannot hurt to be prepared whether you believe there are harder times ahead or not. I got my husband on board by telling him my food preps were a retirement investment. LOL. Keep up the good work Kellene

Good post. Interesting comments. I'm delighted to see Christians prepping and not hiding their heads in the sand. It looks to me like we'd best get ready for an overall lowering of our standard of living, no matter how much we prepare. Are we ready to embrace that?

Just a thought: Perhaps eating seasonally will take on a new importance. Of course, bad weather could take out local crops as well, but when you think of it, how much fresh produce is locally available this time of year? Here in Illinois, not much unless you have a greenhouse. Maybe it's ok to not expect unlimited access to out of season foods. Maybe we've gotten too reliant on the idea that everything is always available. I am rethinking my menus. It's healthier to eat in season anyhow (I plan to can and freeze the excess too).

I'm hoping to stock up at local farmer's markets and grow my own stuff this year, weather permitting. I'd like to know where most of my food comes from and rely less on produce shipped from other regions/countries. A hundred years ago, this was common. Maybe it's just time to get back to the basics and simplify a bit.

One of my sons has been experimenting in his little apartment with hydroponics. We were over there a few days ago and I was stunned. He had the most luscious, beautiful lettuce growing that I have ever seen! He goes home every night and has a huge fresh salad. All this under two 3' grow lights! He has tomatoes flowering, basil that he just cut back (stalk a good 1" thick). I was so amazed! He said it was all pretty much automatic, once he got the hang of it. One of his 'planters' was a Christmas tote he got on sale after Christmas. He cut holes in the lid and set the containers full of the little clay balls in that, planted into the balls and voila! I don't understand all the aspects of hydroponics but I am going to learn! Something to think about. I am proud of him, he has always thought outside of the box.

Almost a year later and things don't look like they are getting any better. Food prices are up and talk of gas soaring up $5.

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