Food Shortage Series Part II

The Logistics of Supply and Demand:

I’m going to continue with the warning series I began yesterday. I was going to address the economic scene today, but I’ve found some additional information today and think that this topic is more prudent. Keep in mind that this is just ONE component of the Perfect Storm Combination that I’m addressing this week.

Bottom line is that due to the horrific global weather conditions that have hit this past growing season, you need to get your house in order asap so that you can actually afford the food and in some cases, get it while it’s even available.

Case in point: While we were all watching the unusual weather transpire during the Super Bowl 2011 (except for my Honey—thank you, Honey) it might have gone unnoticed how such weather would impact the crops that we rely on. I’ve said several times previously in my articles that at present we receive nearly 80% of our essential produce from Mexico. Well, picture this folks, entire crops of Roma tomatoes, asparagus, green beans, cucumbers, zucchini, peppers, and so much more have been destroyed. The numbers that we’re getting back, in terms of the amount of crops that were completely destroyed, are literally 80-100%! Thus when you go to your grocery store, expect to be hit by double and triple price increases; and in fact, many grocers are reporting increases by the HOUR! In fact, some stores which purchase their mailers and newspaper ads in advanced, are claiming that they won't even be able to honor their advertised prices! Many of the stores I’ve spoken to all over the U.S. have shared with me that it’s not even a matter of how much an item is. They expect to have NONE of these items until the next crop, specifically your vegetables. Several local chains said that prices have increased 50-300% just in the last 72 hours. (I strongly suggest you stock up on frozen vegetables and make sure that you've got sprouting seeds to replace some of your vegetable nutrients that will be glaringly missing from your plates as soon as this weekend.)

For those of you who think that a vegetable isn’t food, rather it’s what your food eats (yes, that’s my Honey once again—the hardcore committed carnivore) may I remind you that just because you might not eat these things doesn’t mean you are spared from the impact; because when these things are not available, people's purchases will start to cause an imbalance in what the store IS carrying.

Moving on to wheat and corn: To put this simply, may I suggest that you revisit the articles I’ve written in the past about wheat shortages, because I’m sorry to say that everything that I’ve written previously is becoming painfully obvious, except more so.

Here’s a brief summary. Australia, Canada, Brazil, Russia, China, and U.S. have had historically low productions of wheat and corn this past season. Is that a problem? Uh, that would be a YES, because Australia WAS one of the largest exporters of wheat. They are now needing to IMPORT wheat in order to feed their nation. The same goes for Brazil, Canada, and Russia. By the way, this isn’t limited to just these nations. There are another 17 such as Egypt, Tunisia, North Africa, Haiti, Cameroon, Bangladesh, and India, which are in dire straits due to flooding, drought, and tornadoes. The 900 pound gorilla problem, though, is China. You see, China has really been neither an importer nor an exporter of wheat and corn in the past because they have been producing their own all of these years and storing up a hefty reserve, too. Unfortunately though, even their closely guarded state run media has reported that the drought they are suffering is the worst seen in 200 years! And its impact on their crops is literally catastrophic—you know I don’t use that word lightly.   Great. This is a big problem because this isn’t the skinny kid who hardly has much of an appetite. This is the FAT KID folks which devours and buys up everything in sight to sustain him.  Even IF we were only dealing with the other countries disasters we’d have a big problem. But the problem is compounded to dangerous circumstances when China throws its consumption rate and their ability to BUY all that they want or need into the scene.  China has never been considered in the supplies that the world has to produce because they’ve always taken care of themselves. But now…whew.

Let me give you a little bit of perspective here. China is the world’s largest wheat producer. They produce one-sixth of the total amount of the world’s wheat. They produce twice as much grain as the U.S. and five times as much as Australia—who, if you will remember used to be the largest exporter of wheat in the world. China presently has the lowest reserves of wheat that they’ve ever had. This isn’t about China just buying enough to feed their countrymen, folks. This is also about building up their reserves again. In the past they’ve usually stored about half of what they’ve produced for military purposes. Ruh roh!

So, now we have the big fat rich kid buying up as much of the sparse amount of wheat that the world has at present. When you have a limited supply of an essential commodity, you have skyrocketing prices. Yes, this is the age old formula “supply and demand” dictating prices.  Right now, Costco has their 25 pound bags of wheat for $13.49. They have made it perfectly clear that that price will increase substantially as soon as the present shipment is gone. What’s substantial? Well, let’s look at wheat right now.  (I’ll deal more specifically with China in an upcoming article this week. Wait til we address the economic manipulation that they’ve got going on.)

Wheat commodity prices have increased 80% over the last year. Corn has increased 92%. The UN Agricultural division has warned that this is a serious scenario. Your local grocery stores and restaurants have been pushing back on the price increases in an attempt to buffer the impact, but they simply cannot afford to do so any longer. You WILL start seeing this impact immediately.

Keep in mind that wheat and corn have an impact in nearly every food you purchase. The meat you eat is fed with these grains. Thus meat will become significantly more expensive in about 6 months (as thus far it’s “only” gone up about 6.1 percent from a year ago).  Pork, on the other hand has already increased an average of 11.2 percent from a year ago.  Dairy is produced by grain-eating animals. Thus you will start to see dairy prices going up in about 6 months. But your actual grain products will go up significantly. Yes, this is in addition to the produce headache we’re dealing with.

In terms of “just how much of an increase can we expect?”  Well, even if I could give you hard numbers, I suspect that no one's budget can readily handle an 80-90+ increase in their food budget, not to mention the doubling and tripling of prices. Right? But here’s what I can share with you.

China and India have been battling a surge of food-driven inflation for several months. China has been holding off on this making their news for months! (Remember, they control everything that goes over their broadcast lines.)  They’ve been trying to get ahead of the price impact. As a result, world banks have risen lending rates well over government-set benchmarks, resulting in an increase to all agricultural and commodity loans (according to local press reports cited by Bloomberg News). Across the board, basic foods started surging in price at the start of the year, showing the biggest monthly rise in more than five years. Bread and pasta have increased more in the last month than they have ever done in the last two years—even temporarily. Nations all over are concerned that increasing commodity prices will make headline inflation very painful.

Oh, and by the way, China’s drought is also threatening the world’s drinking water supply. But that’s a whole ‘nother article.

Let me state this clearly so that there’s no mistaking the importance of this news. This has NEVER happened before in our history.  So, in closing, I firmly believe that it’s time that we start giving ourselves a “pass” on not being more frugal, more focused, in taking measures to stabilize our food budget.  I also suggest that you make friends with your window sills, backyards, and patio space and learn to grow your own overpriced tomatoes, asparagus, etc. I also suggest that you learn why wheat is such an important commodity and why it needs to be in your home. There are certainly plenty of articles that I’ve shared in the past on this matter.

Remember, none of this  information is intended to incite panic. Please do NOT share it with anyone else in such a vein. It will not help them. Rather, share it as some logical, well founded information that is intended to couple some action with your best of intentions. I can honestly tell you that with the use of the strategies I share via the Self-Reliance Revolution broadcasts on Wednesday nights, I am not afraid for me and my family. But I am not looking forward to the inevitable tears that I know I will shed on behalf of those I care about, as I will have to watch them struggle and suffer unnecessarily. Please, please take this to heart, folks. And sorry to remind you of this, but there are three more articles in store for the rest of this week that will address the other components of this perfectly aligned storm.

Food Shortage Series Part I

Food Shortage Series Part III

Food Shortage Series Part IV

 


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Comments

If the U.S. held on to all of its wheat, would it have enough to make some reserves, or enough to hold out until the next crop comes in? It seems like that having enough to eat would trump any amount of money that would be offered so that someone else would have enough for a reserve. (I am talking about reserves for someone else, not sending some wheat to those who are suffering right now, and have nothing to eat.)

AP#???? China is our creditor. Have you tried to keep what you need when you owe someone? They come after you . We have already given China our "freedom" now we must dance their tune. If we do not give china food they call in our notes and we end as a country. Everything we think we understand will change. Chaos and anarchy will reign. It will only be by China's "kindness' we will have anything. Our greed has enslaved us. Sorry. We wanted it easy but it never is.

Thanks for replying. I guess that I sound stupid/naive/clueless, but it is my understanding that we send (government) aid everywhere, and lend money to other countries, so I thought we still had something to call our own. Hence, I thought keeping our food of all things would be a wise idea. I know that we are in debt, but I thought that using our food as a leverage to deal with that debt would also make sense. I see what you mean, though, so thanks again for the explanation.

I don't think you sound clueless at all, AP. You're under the same opinion that the majority of Americans are today, actually.
Suffice it to say that our nation has been operating on as thin of a budget as any of the poorest households in America. Japan and China own the majority of all of our foreign debt. As such, we HAVE to stay in good graces with them in terms of selling our valuable commodities to them, especially when you take into consideration that the U.S. currency which they hold so much of is likely not worth the paper it's printed on--at the very least that will be the case once another OPEC nation decided to violate the Petrodollar treaty.

Even leaving our debt to China aside - I don't think I want the government telling folks what they have to do with their crops, what country they have to sell them in, etc. I just don't see 'government orders' improving our lives, rather, it would be a step towards rationing.

US debt owned by other nations:
China 7.5%, Japan 6.4%, United Kingdom 3.4%, Brazil 1.3%, Oil exporting nations 1.6%, All Other Nations 11.6%. China and Japan own a combined 13.9%. That does not give them special treatment.

Dave, Actually your numbers are just a tad off. Japan right now owns the majority, but it's common for China and Japan to flip flop back and forth as they sell our debt back and forth to each other.

You are right at home with your remarks, China is having major food shortage and they have the money. After the supply is purchased by them, what happens to everyone else.

I was in the produce department of a large chain store this evening chatting with the produce guy. I mentioned the loss of produce in Mexico due to the freezing weather. Him - blank stare. Me - you know, the cold weather during the Superbowl. Him - recognition of a TV screen with guys playing football. Me - it will have quite an impact on future prices. Him - Oh is that why? We got word that prices would be going way up but I didn't know why. Living in a vaccuum? Watching mainstream media?
The last Libbys veggies I bought in October were 3/$1. Today the "sale" price was $1.19 down from $1.39 retail. I couldn't even justify buying them with a $.50 off on 3 coupon - I will no doubt later think that was a great deal. But there are still some bargains out there and every one that makes it into my pantry is one more that will reduce costs later. If ever there were a time to buy food for storage, this is it.
Thanks Kellene for making so many aware of the challenges and the HOPE and PEACE that being prepared brings.

Barb, I don't blame you for not purchasing the veggies, but I do agree...you'll probably regret it later on. :-)

Sprouting is looking better and better right now. Of course THOSE prices went up over 60-80% right after Five Star Preparedness had their group buy. Boy am I glad I took advantage of that!

My next big purchase will be the square foot gardening boxes that Sam's Club is carrying--at least I'll get those for FREE thanks to the Self-Reliance Revolution strategies, and thus I can spend some money on some high quality, heirloom seeds.

I got really weird looks a few weeks ago when I went into Kroger and bought every last can of tomatoes on the shelf--about 150 cans at each store, and there are two Kroger stores in my town--because if you bought 10 or more, they were only 47 cents a can instead of 97 cents. So now I've got 300 cans of tomatoes but I don't have to worry about buying more for at least a year! Of course, this is also why I do much of my shopping in the middle of the night, to avoid being seen by too many people, and then I take a very circuitous route home to avoid being followed, but I'd rather get strange looks and be labeled eccentric by the few people who do see me than to be hungry and starve.

Incidentally, I've had a lot of people tell me that I shouldn't go anywhere that uses customer courtesy cards because, they said, the store could always track down where I live if they wanted to. Well, go ahead and let them, because when I filled out the courtesy card application, I put my name down as Ted Nugent and my address as 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue! :D

By the way, the assertion about the store courtesy cards--absolute bullocks and just one more example of folks "volunteering." If you aren't legally required to give your bank your social security number, then you sure as heck aren't required to give your grocery store any private information either. I have several store courtesy cards. However, never, at any time did I give them MY information, address etc. I can do a whole heck of a lot more with my couponing and co-op efforts than what they can promise to do for me in the form of rebate checks.
The whole different route home...that's important to never get into a predictable rut, however, I personally welcome someone attempting to circumvent my preparedness efforts. I'd be happy to introduce them to the Constitutional rights of my nation. But seriously, I think that we're flattering ourselves at this point if A) we believe that such a purchase is of interest at this juncture, and B) if we think that we are so good at avoiding the dozens of other ways they can get what info they want.

Poor Ted, In trouble again! LOL! Our native Michigan rock star. Good point about the courtesy card...never thought of that. Just who is keeping track of what you buy besides the store??? Can the government access that info? I just joined a 'food buying club'. I was amazed looking through their catalogs and the online store they buy from. I will be able to get my wheat berries much cheaper - from the same source! But not pay the shipping charges. And I can buy as much as I want/can afford. So far, the prices have not increased much...yet.

Regarding the climate changes. If you are planning on planting fruit/nut trees I would suggest buying them for a colder zone. For instance, if you are in Zone 6, buy for Zone 5, or better Zone 4. Then you won't have to worry about your trees dying because it got too cold for them.

Yes, the government DOES access such information. They have done this too Google, E-bay, AT&T, and so many other businesses. Whether or not it's constitutional, well, that's a whole other story.

How do you get the kit free at SAMs??

If you tune in to our Tuesday evening Self-Reliance Revolution webinar you'll learn all of the strategies I use to provide for my family with little or even NO money. See the top of this page for details.

You mentioned that COSTCO sells wheat. There is no place in my area that sells whole grain wheat and the shipping costs would be prohibitive if I were to try and order it. With that in mind, how do I stock up on wheat given my locale? I guess this is definitely a "NOW WHAT?" moment. I've been telling my DH that you had the skinny on all this stuff and he's finally seen the light. He's encouraging me to take what extra we have and stock up even more than I already have been. Thanks for keeping us informed. You ROCK Kellene!

Sharon, I concur with the advice you received from one of our other readers--find a local Bishop's Storehouse in your area. You will also find wheat in specialty baking/cooking stores such as Bosch. I'd let your "fingers to the walking" and make some phone calls to track some down.

I have seen 25 lb bags of hard white wheat at Walmart. Have you checked there? Just a thought. I get mine from the LDS Bishops store house, but was pleasantly surprised Walmart had them too.

Hey Sharon, I also live outside the 'land of opportunity' where wheat is sold in the regular stores. :) But there are a few websites that have a cap on shipping at around $5-$12. So you can buy all you want and not pay more than the capped amount in shipping costs. I know Emergency Essentials has a cap (sorry, Kellene, I know you don't like them!) and Honeyville Food does too. Augason Farms used to, but not sure if they still do (couldn't see it posted on their site anywhere). So I just buy a whole bunch at one time to take advantage of the shipping cap. Hope that helps.

Honeyvillegrains.com is a good source and they have a set shipping price of $4.49 per order. Doesn't matter if you order 600 pounds it is still $4.49. Might be worth looking into.
Adele

Sharon, the LDS canneries/Bishop's storehouses are all over the place. They sell wheat in 25 lb bags if they have any.
Well, I was planning on growing tons of tomato plants in my garden this year....guess I'll have to add peppers to that list. We don't buy asparagus very often, but it takes two years for it to be ready to harvest....
*sigh* and we just got a dog.....

If you can grow asparagus where you live, then it grows wild in the country around you. You will have to get out of your car and walk because it will be hidden in the tall weeds/grass. MAKE SURE YOU ARE NOT PICKING ON PRIVATE PROPERTY! My friend down the road has to chase people out of her beds every year. We live in an area with lots of state land, so the picking is free. Same with berries - raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, wild grapes for jelly, even blueberries down in the boggy areas (wear muck boots...). It is all out there, people, you just have to look. Just don't go by yourself, okay? Lets be safe!

I'm trying to share this with my family, & they keep wanting "sources" for your info. Could you direct me to where to start them looking?
Personally, I've been to every sale so far this week & will keep it up as long as I can.

Sorry Michele, I simply do not have time for that. What I have shared can easily be found with an internet search, interviews of grocers, and USDA and UN officials, library archives to establish historical trends etc. This has been a multi-week effort but the information is certainly not secret by any means. If someone wants to wait to do something until they see the lamestream media confirm it, then that's their prerogative. But by the time it hits Fox News, supplies will be gone.

My philosophy with this blog is "here's the information." Do what you want with it. But my hands are clean in sharing it and rather than spend any additional efforts in holding people's hands to get them to do the right thing, I will instead focus my efforts in making sure that I provide peace and comfort for my family. No one has to take my word for it but I also believe that the internet is not the appropriate source to look to for a confirmation of these kinds of matters--rather a "gut check", listening to the Spirit, etc. is the ultimate authority on the truth of all things and is usually much more convincing that any research I could point a person towards.
Pray about this. If it's true, you'll know it. If not, you'll have a stupor of thought on it. It's times like these that play out exactly why Spiritual Preparedness has the highest priority of all other principles of preparedness.

Well said. Incidentally, today it hit Fox News.

I certainly didn't expect you to type everything out or anything! Sorry I didn't make that clear! The first couple of sentences you put will give me enough info to point them. I'm absolutely in agreement with you on following the Spirit about if this is true...which is why I've been buying all week! And which is what I've been telling my family! Sorry if I posted unclearly! Thanks so much for your work! This is by far the best preparedness source I've found!

What kind of advice would you give to students who are living far from home and living on a very strict budget? They have been building a little storage, but it isn't enough to keep them going for very long. If they were closer to home, I could help them out foodwise, but this makes me worry greatly for them. Oh, and with a new baby also. Thanks for any advice!

All motivation is self-motivation. Thus I would beg them to tune in to tonight's Self-Reliance Revolution show as I will answer that question then. This is too serious of an issue to be handled in a simple response on a blog. Next, have them tune in to the live Self-Reliance Revolution Webinar on Tuesday nights...details are at the top of this home page. This problem does not require money, per se. It does require action though.

Just a bit more on increasing prices. Last weekend I was at the local flea market and commented on the abundant lack of produce that my Produce Guy normally carries. He summed it up quite simply by stating "...what he had been paying $2/case for was now $6, and generally everything had increased by a factor of 3-4 times." that was on 2/13, and at wholesale levels. Now add the rising costs of fuel to the equation, and things are going to get ugly quickly. After a Costco run on Monday, even my wife has finally seen the light.

What to do? Head over to instructables.com and/or blog.makezine.com for DIY low tech, low drag indoor & outdoor planters. [u]Note[/u]: I have the sites on RSS Feeds, and am not associated with them in any way including financially.

Just a little outside the box thinking.

Tom

I'm in the middle of reading an excellent book called "City of Thieves", a true story which takes place in the middle of the siege of Leningrad during WWII. It describes the starving populace eating their cats & dogs. When the rat population exploded due to the lack of cats, they ate the rats. When the rats were gone, they checked out library books, but instead of reading them, they boiled them down because there was protein in the paste used in the bindings. The local food factory was bombed out, but it contained several tons of sugar, which burned up. The dirt and charcoal in the ruins tasted slightly sweet, and they ate that. There was also a notable amount of cannibalism. This story inspired me to go out NOW to stock up on non-perishables, because who's to say it couldn't happen again, for one reason or another? Do I want to eat my dog, some rats, and a few library books, or stock up on rice, beans, pasta and potatoes? Another interesting note: At the beginning of the siege, they wondered if thin people or fat people would withstand the deprivation better. Thin people, because they don't need much to survive, or fat people because they have some extra padding they can spare? It turned out that thin people were far better able to survive the situation.

Curse you Janet. Now I just spent my grocery money on yet another book! :-) Like my husband isn't used to THAT one. hee hee. it sounded too interesting to ignore. Thanks!

Goodness, I got my copy of the book for free at the library. And felt thankful that I just read the book and returned it, and didn't have to eat it!

The entire book is about two Russian soldiers on a mission to find a dozen eggs during the siege of Leningrad. After reading this true story of what they had to go through just to find what I buy for 99 cents, I ate my breakfast eggs slowly, contemplatively, and with much appreciation.

A useful point of comparison is the Irish Potato Famine from 1845 to 1852. During this famine that claimed the lives of 20%-25% of the population, exports of potatoes & livestock actually increased (to England)! So when commodities get scarce, prices sky-rocket, and the food goes to those who can afford it. You better believe in this world of greed, the food will go to the highest bidder (wherever they are in the world).

If you can't find local wheat one place to look for is a Mennonite store. Our local store has all kinds of wheat including Prarie Gold White plus flour,whole wheat and white in 50# bags.

Thanks to all for the suggestions on whole grain wheat suppliers. The things we can learn from each other is amazing and such a blessing! I'm in South Mississippi and I've never seen whole wheat at any of our Wal-Marts. Maybe it's regional thing. I do plan to "let my fingers do the walking" as Kellene suggested and find out what I can about snagging up this precious foodstuff in our area. Wish me luck, fellow preppers!

Sharon;

I read where you're in South Mississippi.
I believe there is an LDS Storehouse in Slidell, Louisiana...on or near Robert Road off of Gause Blvd.

Awesome Folks!

Of Course the LDS website has very affordable #10 cans of wheat, oats, rice and beans.
I just received a couple of the Home Starter Kits last week...to have stored for un-prepared family in need.

Good Luck.

Prag

Go to your Local Harvest website. See if any food clubs are listed there (that is where I found mine). Start calling all the places listed and ask them if they know of any food buying clubs, or food co-ops, that you can join. When many families buy together, the price is cheaper for all, it is delivered to a site near you by truck, you divide it all up (everyone chooses what they want to order beforehand) and take it home. And you can buy ALL you can afford. It is a true blessing!

Then again, everyone could tune in to the Self-Reliance Revolution webinar and learn about a national group that not only gives you access to these kinds of things, but also ALL of your tangible preparedness needs for less than $300 out of pocket. (See the top of the page for webinar registration details.)

You might also check Farm stores and feed mills if in an Agricultural area. Make sure you get animal feed and not seed. Most animal feed is "cleaned" 1 or 2 times where human consumption requires 3 cleanings.
Also go to for rolled oats or groats. Whole oats are a lot of work. Barleys, dent corn and ryes. I agree that wheat is one of best grains to store. But, you might get a buy other grains as folks try to buy up wheat. Barley makes everything from soups to bread to beer and sprouts. For me that's about all I expect from a grain. :)

Personally I would NEVER purchase feed...regardless of how often it's cleaned, it is permitted to have pieces of unidentified ingredients. I'm not happy with what I see on the labels let alone what I don't see. Don't do it, Folks.

I bought a 50-lb bag of oats (for animal feed) for $12 and have stored it in my basement in a rubbermaid container with locking lid. I *hope* I am never desperate enough to eat it (I also stockpile regular old Quaker oats) but that much food for that little money seemed to be a good investment to me. At the very least, I will want to be sure to keep my neighbor's chickens alive. And, if worse comes to worst, eating 50 pounds of animal feed is far better than eating nothing at all.

I would definitely purchase that for livestock/chickens, etc. Good find!

I agree, Kellene! It can be so dirty and full of bug pieces. Don't buy animal feed for human consumption!

Kellene,

Funny strange that you are going down this road at this time. Call it impeccable timing as a matter of fact. Just last night on the national news, it was announced that food prices increased an overall 29% through the course of last year. No time like the present to set aside for you and yours, a few times over. Stock up at today's prices and have no regrets later when you won't be able to afford even higher percentage rates.

Personally getting use to having beans and oatmeal a few extra times a month will allow for the extras to store for the future. A sacrifice that will allow your families to have something when others have naught.

Kellene just an option.
I know you got your stuff together. But I never want the famines that happened in Europe cause "corn" was declared "Only fit for beasts" and watch Ireland die. Not the best option just an option. Trust me, I don't want to work any harder than I have to on survival. I started a couple of years ago and you taught me so much. I don't know if I'm ready. I do know I did my best.
Also you might check out the "Bog butter" out of the Peat bogs that is still edible after 300-1000 years.
Folks worry about our heated jars and pasturized butter. :)

Thanks for passing along this information.

What could get really scary is if/when it hits critical mass where people start to sense a crisis and start panic buying. Then everything will disappear.

I think that what the public perceives as temporary shortages won't by itself do it. It's the combination with price spikes that will drive the fear. More shortage will bring more panic, and it's a downward spiral from there. The wise ones will have gotten theirs already.

It'll be 'interesting' (for lack of a better word) to see what happens. I plan to steer clear of the stores when it happens.

It's only scary if you're not ready. When there's a food crisis going on, the grocery store is the LAST place you'll want to be.

A couple months ago a local grocery store had a "sunrise sale" where eggs were 49 cents, butter 49 cents, bacon 99 cents and so on. The prices were really good - but the sale was ONLY from 6am till 7am on that one day. I went to the sale, and the place was MOBBED- no place to park, not a single cart or basket available, and lines all the way to the back of the store-- just because butter was 49 cents a pound. I looked around at the crowd of people, who were happy, laughing, and orderly, and thought that if the store was THAT CROWDED because bacon was cheap, just *think* how crowded it would be in a true emergency, when people are not happy, laughing, or orderly, but are instead hungry, desperate, and angry. You're right - you don't want to be there for that.

What scares me is folks want another shepard, yet make no real changes in their life. Don't believe Kellene if you think she is full of stuff and nonsense. Don't believe me, Don't beleive anyone! Your life, Your choice. Cause that's what it is! you may believe right wing, left-wing or in the middle. Go to the bread lines and take your portion. Now you can buy 50# of rice ahead of times or stand in a soup line. Get some flour for bread or stand in a soup line. Sorry you got no skills no honey or leavening. You can't possibly support a family. So they take yor kids to the proper schools.
It's george orwell's 1984, I'm geussing he did not forsee it as a DYI book for despotism

Thank you for the heads up. This is VERY helpful information. I've already seen crazy things at the store. A short while ago, I bought a bag of grapes and they cost me around $13! I've never paid that much for a bag of grapes! Also, the Zuchinni was totally out of stock (I got the last 2) and that's a bummer since we love Zuchinni. Anyway, it's interesting (and scary) to see this stuff already in motion. Thanks again for the info.

I was at walmart today and they were completely out of their store brand of sugar except for their largest size. I asked the associate what happened to all of the sugar and he said they are having trouble getting it in on the wharehouse side. But he didn't know why.

Just a reminder- with the canned goods you stock up on, you'll want an extra manual can opener or two. They seem to break at the worst times! :D

Yep, on my 'to buy' list...only have two, one in the house that has been acting sticky and one in the camper.

Three is two, two is one, one is none...buy more.

Reminds me of a Farside cartoon: a man and wife in their underground bunker, nuclear bombs going off all over the place, they're surrounded by hundreds of canned good and the wife is saying to the husband: "How many times did I tell you DON'T FORGET THE CAN OPENER!"

Every time I start wanting to spend my money on an elliptical machine or a grand piano, I come back to this site and remember that I CAN'T EAT AN ELLIPTICAL MACHINE. Sigh.

Waiting for part III of the Food Shortage segments is weighing heavy on me and maybe even causing a little of that panic you said we shouldn't have. Please put me out of my misery and post Part III :) Thanks for all your efforts on all of the "public's" behalf. I am truly grateful!

I'll be posting it tonight.... I still have SO much to do to get ready for the film crew invading my home first thing in the morning for the next 3 days. :-)

As they say in the theater, "Break a Leg," tomorrow Kellene! You'll be absolutely smashing!

Praying that all goes well with the film crew - and that God gives you MORE words of wisdom and a calm spirit.

Good luck with the film crew and keep us posted when it wiull be on tv. Yhanks for all you do.

I know that all will go great. This is important info to get out and the Lord will bless you.

It's sure getting sporty right now.
Kellene "Break a leg" and I still don't know how you do all you do and say you are lazy. While we may disagree on stuff you are never nasty.
For all the newbies to prep please follow Kellene's 10 steps of self reliance. It really works, all steps are important but Kellene is the best for prioritizing I've found.

Since it keeps coming up by some of the comments, I thought that's I redirect some folks to articles that I've written previously about the self-defense part of preparedness. There are some of you who are new to this blog and thus are not familiar with my numerous writing on the matter. So perhaps if you know that this is clearly being addressed, you won't feel it necessary to cause a bit of distraction to the matter of this series with the warning of events that are still out a bit for us--thank goodness. Everything in it's proper order, time, etc.

http://www.preparednesspro.com/blog/now-thats-what-i-call-bling/

http://www.preparednesspro.com/blog/preparing-for-the-worst/

Sadly, most Americans know *nothing* about their own country's history. During the Great Depression (the first one, in the 1930s), our farms were decimated by the "Dirty Thirties" (dust storms).

The plains that suffered the most were the very pieces of farmland that produced much of our food. It was a large straw added onto the breaking camel's back.

I highly recommend people read "The Worst Hard Time" to learn more. It's a fascinating book, but also pretty terrifying. My point is, we've come into another "perfect storm" of economic strife, agricultural catastrophes and food shortages and spiking food prices.

If only people knew their history, because history can tell us so much about the future, but unfortunately most folks are clueless.

Rose Thornton

Just an update on food prices here in Ontario (I'm 20 miles north of Buffalo, NY). Exactly as you said in your response to my earlier question, Kellene, there was a dramatic difference in produce prices from last week.
Fresh broccoli $3.47 up from $1.47
Baby carrots $1.27 up from 97 cents
Oranges $6.97 up from 3.97 (5 pound bag).

What had NOT yet gone up was grain items (rice and flour) and frozen veggies. I bought as much as I could store of the frozen veggies and am hoping it lasts us until the garden begins to produce.

I'm eagerly awaiting the next in the series. Thank you for your excellent advice and information.

"Wheat commodity prices have increased 80% over the last month. Corn has increased 92%."

I think you meant in the last YEAR. There is a tremendous difference between a 80% increase in 30 days and one in 365 days. Wheat is only up 3.5% in the last month and while it is high, its not as high as in 2008.

You are absolutely right. Thanks for helping us find the error.

Take those frozen vegetables and dehydrate them. Been doing that a long time when I catch a great sale. Good for corn, bean, broccoli, peas, okara, mushroom, etc. Last forever stored properly. I keep two Excalibur dehydrators going during busy times.

Kellene,

Do you have any good recommendations on a good hand crank wheat grinder? I've bought a couple and they grind a nice cereal texture....but nothing fine enough for a good bread flour....suggestions appreciated....by the way I love your site...I discovered it a few weeks ago and really appreciate what your doing...keep up the good work.

I like my Family Mill just fine.

If you live near an Aldi's market, they have grade A canned goods (stewed tomatoes, green beans, corn, mixed veggies) for $.45 a can. Not name brnad but grade A means it shouldn't have sticks and twigs!

Oh how I miss my Aldi's. :-)

Kellene, y ou claim to publish views that disagree with yours, but my post pointing out that the corn crop last year was the 2nd best crop EVER with supporting links you've chosen not to publish.

It's fine to have a point, but if you're going to claim to welcome diverging viewpoints, I'd like you to stand by your own words.

Or delete them. "kellenes blog is solely her opinion, and only opinions that agree with her will be published to keep other thoughts froom intruding into kellenes readers heads. "

Bruce, to be frank, you sound like a little kid throwing a temper tantrum here. If you posted a comment which had links in it, and you are not a regular poster to the blog, then it will automatically go to the spam folder, which I never check. It's simply one of the much needed safety features for the Wordpress blog which I have no intention of disabling as I'm sure none of our readers are coming to this site to find out where they can get "the purple pill" and the latest porn hook-ups.

I too found plenty of links that claimed it was a record year last year for corn. However, that was a bunch of hogwash. So I'm not surprised you found links claiming that our corn crop last year was the best ever. However, you'd be operating on incomplete information--as did many people last year. The USDA actually had conflicting reports right in plain sight on their site--one claiming best crop, and another claiming "abysmal crop." Keep in mind that if you follow the money, you can easily understand why such false claims were made. The U.S.--as a corporation--subsidizes the corn crop and they play the corn commodities on the market. Too much bad news about the corn crop can cause crashing stock values and thus cause investors to lose money on their speculation. However, if you follow the money on any motivation I might have in sharing accurate information with my readers, then I think you'll be hard pressed to find any monetary motive--especially considering I don't even have Google advertisers on my site nor do I require you to pay me to tolerate your malicious nonsense.

Additionally, in the About Us section of my blog here it clearly states that I won't abide incorrect information to be posted as I don't want someone to mistakenly rely upon it in their efforts to sustain their family. So even if your post had gone through without the spam filter catching it, it would have still needed to be corrected.

If you will search for the article I wrote specifically on the corn crops last year, you will see that dual information. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, I actually provided a significant amount of quotes from corn farmers which supported the "worst crop" scenario.

Oh, and by the way, since I don't have advertisers on this blog at present, I'm afraid I'll have to edit your post to remove the links to your site. Perhaps another time it will appropriate to list. (And I should at least thank you for spelling my name correctly--although without the caps. But hey, I'll take it anyway.)

Kellene, I just returned from a meeting where you spoke. I want you to know that your presentation on the "whys" of prepardness was probably the best I've ever heard. Many thanks.

Thank you, Terri. That really means a lot to me that you would take time and provide feedback, especially when it's such positive feedback. Thank you very much!

Just one small fact change. The price of wheat last month at Costco was $13.49 per 45 pounds in the six gallon white storage bucket. They say there should be a restock in place March 2nd at an increase of $3.00. I'm surprised that's all, we will see. I will return and report.

Actually, the sources for wheat for Costco's vary at each location in an effort to get the most aggressive pricing. So that which may be available on that in one place is not available in another. Also, note that not all Costco's are actually carrying the wheat.

It's great to find a site that shares so much useful information. For those in the Boise, Idaho area a good source for red wheat is the Big D Ranch in Meridian. When I bought in January they had 50lb bags for $14.

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