Did I Mention That a Wheat Shortage is Imminent?

A perfect storm is brewing folks and it’s a mixture of Mother Nature, misinformation, and apathy. Today Russia, the worlds 3^rd largest exporter of wheat, announced that they were banning wheat and wheat derivative exports for at least the next four months. (Click here for article)  They are asking that other nations, including Kazakhstan—another major grain exporter, to do the same.  Keep in mind that China, one of the largest importers of wheat, is presently experiencing the worst drought of the century. Additionally, the news article quotes a Russian official claiming that the United States had a good harvest this year, and thus the news of today is no cause for concern.  There’s only one problem with that…the U.S. is already in the hole in their wheat harvest, as well as other grains, and is desperately attempting to build up ANY reserves, let alone the reserve level of 300% of our annual grain consumption.  U.S. farmers have already sold 75% of their crop—a benchmark that typically would not be accomplished until Spring 2011.  Considering the wheat commodities continue to increase dramatically. Depending on your source and the timing of your research, June, wheat prices were at about $3.50-$4.72 per bushel. Today they are at $6.70 to $8.08 per bushel! That’s a top end price increase of 71%! Thus the early buying trend coupled with such stark price increases clearly indicates that folks all over the world, as well as here in the U.S., are anxious and in desperate need for wheat.  They can’t afford to wait until the prices come down again to purchase because they all know that Mother Nature has not been too kind this year. Expect wheat commodities to give you a better return on your investment, folks, than your 401K, mutual funds, and real estate investments right now. The Weather Man is not expected to be kind to Russia any time soon either.  This is actually their driest season of the year.  This particular drought has delivered them the lowest rainfall and highest temperatures they have seen in 30 years, particularly in Southwest Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. In the news article, the Russian official also mistakenly claimed that Europe has had a nice wheat harvest this year as well.  Um. Did he miss the news about Europe’s record dry season this year? (search Wall Street Journal online for many articles about this topic.) As a result, their own grain, fruits, and vegetables are taking a marked hit this year.  The ripple effect simply cannot be ignored. The German market had to increase their produce and grain costs by 15% just last month; they are not expecting any relief until the next growing season. The domino effect of this is that the European economy has relied heavily through the years on selling their grains to the rest of the world. The fact that they won’t be able to supply enough this year could really compromise their financial security.  France, Europe’s largest wheat producer, is expected to take a hit this year due to weather problems as well. Germany’s wheat and barley production is expected to reduce by at least 20% and their corn by 15% this year.    Parts of England are reporting severe difficulties to the point that some crops didn’t even have the chance to germinate. With weather forecasts predicting more high temperatures across most of Europe and Russia, things aren’t likely to improve anytime soon. It’s not about just losing a week of production and growing time.  Crops are already strained and one more week could kill a significant percentage of them. Did I mention also that Canada had a miserably low harvest this year as well?  Oh, and Argentina, previously the largest exporter of wheat, is now having to IMPORT wheat. To put this all into a perspective that may impact you more clearly, do you remember during the summer of 2008 when Costco and Sam’s Club customers were challenged in finding wheat and rice?  Well this particular decrease in wheat production was only at half of what it is this year worldwide. The thousand foot view takes a look at this stark increase in the cost of our most important food crops, our significant decrease in the access to this crops, AND consideration of our oil prices and availability.  All of these factors together, affecting our two most important inflation/pre-hyperinflation factors to consider, and we should indeed snap out of any feelings of apathy that we have in being better prepared.  Once again though, I reiterate that the information I distribute is not for the purpose of inducing panic. Instead, it’s an effort to give you concrete, real life information that will ideally put your preparedness efforts in motion.  If you have a sufficient supply of grains and the skills which you need to prepare them, then not only will you be able to ride through this cacophony of events, but hey, you could even assist your family financially by investing—either tangibly or via the stock market—in these vital commodities. Personally, I’m grateful for whatever warped programming I have in my somewhat OCD mind that causes me to never feel like I have enough grains.  As a result, for the last 10 years I have been compelled to find room in my budget any time I see any significant reduction in the price of grains. (My husband thinks we can never have enough water. I guess if he’s good with that, and I’m good with chocolate and grains, then we’ll make it ok. *grin*)  In terms of stocking up on wheat and other grain products, I encourage every other prepper to do the same. (Chocolate never hurt anyone either. Hee hee) Perhaps this article will assist the non-believers in your life to take a little action for their well being also.  One can only hope. Join us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter here To see our upcoming event schedule, click here Check out our in-home-course programs Subscribe to Preparedness Pro today and never miss a thing! 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