Critical Grid Vulnerabilities: The Hidden Risk of High-Voltage Transformer Failures in the U.S.

EMP Preparedness

I’ve posted 3 articles last week about how to make a DIY Faraday Cage.  Why that topic instead of something yummy from the pantry?  Well, it’s been on my mind lately. Part of the reason has been because of this bit of research that I ventured on. My mind has been based on facts, not speculation, so my self-sufficiency efforts have been leaning in that direction and so that’s what I’ve been writing about.

The United States has an extensive electrical grid infrastructure that includes approximately 2,100 high-voltage transformers rated at 345 kV and above. These high-voltage transformers are critical components of the power grid, as they handle a significant portion of the electricity transmission, ensuring power is distributed efficiently and reliably across the country​​​​​​.

If one of these high-voltage transformers were damaged, the impact could be substantial. These transformers are custom-designed, very expensive (ranging from $2 million to $10 million each), and have long procurement lead times, typically around 24 months. Damage to one of these transformers could lead to significant outages and disruptions, particularly because there are few spare transformers available due to their high cost and the complexity of their design​​​​​​.

The United States does keep some spare high-voltage transformers on hand, although the availability and distribution of these spares vary among utilities and regions. And there have not been enough exercises run to see if these efforts would actually make a difference in the event that a transformer (or several) are lost.

Many utilities maintain a stockpile of spare transformers. However, these are often limited in number due to the high cost and logistical challenges associated with storing and transporting such large equipment. High-voltage transformers can cost between $2 million to $10 million each, and moving them can be expensive and time-consuming​​​​. Source.

In response to the vulnerabilities of the U.S. electrical grid to various threats, a consortium of eight major electric power companies formed Grid Assurance. This initiative aims to create a national stockpile of spare transformers and other essential grid equipment, which can be rapidly deployed in the event of natural disasters, cyber-attacks, or other emergencies. Companies participating in this program include American Electric Power, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Duke Energy, Edison International, Eversource Energy, Exelon Corp., Great Plains Energy, and Southern Co.​​. Source.

The Rapid Recovery Transformer (RecX) program, led by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in collaboration with the Electric Power Research

The majority of our transformers come internationally

Institute and ABB, developed a prototype for quickly deployable transformers. These transformers can be transported and installed in about a week, significantly faster than the typical several months required for traditional transformer replacements​​. Source

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) have been working on initiatives to enhance grid resilience, including encouraging utilities to share spare transformers and improve physical security measures for critical grid infrastructure​​​​. Source

Overall, while there are efforts to ensure that spare transformers are available to address emergencies, the system relies on a combination of individual utility stockpiles, collaborative programs like Grid Assurance, and federal initiatives aimed at improving grid resilience. The spare transformers that are kept on hand are crucial for quickly restoring power in the event of significant grid disruptions.  It’s still up in the air whether or not these efforts are enough to make a difference in the event of a coordinated hack or EMP event.

A more severe scenario could involve coordinated damage to multiple high-voltage transformers. For instance, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has suggested that if nine of the 30 most critical transformers were disabled, it could potentially lead to a coast-to-coast blackout, crippling the entire U.S. power grid​​. This highlights the vulnerability and critical importance of these components to national infrastructure and security.  Why? It’s based on the crucial role these transformers play in the grid’s functionality and stability. Here are the key reasons why such an event would have catastrophic consequences:

Critical Role of Some High-Voltage Transformers:

1. Central Hubs in the Grid:
   • High-voltage transformers are essential for stepping up voltage for long-distance transmission and stepping it down for local distribution. They act as central hubs that interconnect various parts of the grid. Disabling key transformers can disrupt these connections, leading to widespread outages​​​​. Source
2. Limited Redundancy:
   • The U.S. power grid has limited redundancy when it comes to high-voltage transformers. Each transformer typically serves a large geographic area or a significant number of customers. The loss of a few critical transformers can cascade through the system, causing failures in connected regions due to the inability to reroute power efficiently​​​​. Source
3. Long Replacement Times:
   • High-voltage transformers are custom-built, expensive, and have long lead times for manufacturing and installation, often taking several months to replace. This means that any substantial damage can lead to prolonged outages and difficulty in restoring power quickly​​​​​​. Source

Vulnerability and Impact of Some High-Voltage Transformers:

1. Concentration of Critical Infrastructure:
   • The U.S. power grid has specific nodes or substations that are more critical than others. These nodes manage large amounts of power transfer and their failure can disrupt the flow of electricity across vast regions. An attack or natural disaster affecting these nodes can have disproportionate impacts​​​​.
2. Cascading Failures:
   • The power grid is designed to operate as a stable, balanced system. Removing key components can lead to overloading other parts of the grid, causing additional failures in a cascading effect. This can turn a localized issue into a widespread blackout affecting multiple states​​​​.
3. Lack of Quick Fixes:
   • Unlike smaller components of the grid, high-voltage transformers do not have readily available replacements that can be quickly swapped in. The specialized nature of these transformers means that utilities cannot easily or quickly bring in new ones to replace damaged units​​​​.

Real-World Concerns of High-Voltage Transformer Service Interruption:

1. Historical Precedents:
   • Past events have shown the potential for such disruptions. For example, the 2003 Northeast blackout, which affected 55 million people in the U.S. and Canada, was caused by a combination of equipment failure and human error, illustrating how vulnerable the grid can be to cascading failures​​​​.
2. Security Threats:
   • Intentional attacks, such as physical or cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, pose a significant risk. The energy sector is a prime target for such attacks due to the potential for widespread disruption​​​​.

The aging infrastructure of our high-voltage transformers adds another layer of risk. With many transformers being over 25 years old and some even exceeding 40 years, they are increasingly susceptible to failure. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires substantial investment in maintenance, upgrades, and the development of new infrastructure​​. Investment that is not forthcoming from Congress.  Every time it’s been brought up, it gets shut down.

Where do we buy our high-voltage transformers from?  Well, they do not all come from a U.S. based facility. (“naturally”, she says sarcastically)

High-voltage transformers in the United States are sourced from a few key manufacturers, both domestically and internationally.

1. GE Grid Solutions: GE offers a wide range of power transformers for various applications, including generation, transmission, and distribution. They are known for their robust designs and high performance, catering to demanding electrical environments​​. More details can be found here.
2. Hitachi Energy: This company provides a comprehensive range of power transformers and related components. Hitachi Energy has delivered over 20,000 power transformers globally, emphasizing quality and reliability in their products. They offer various transformer solutions, including HVDC converter transformers and digitally enabled transformers​​. You can learn more here.
3. Prolec GE: Known for their large, medium, and small power transformers, Prolec GE utilizes advanced design and testing tools to ensure each transformer meets stringent industry standards. They supply a wide range of transformer solutions tailored to global customer needs​​.

These manufacturers play a crucial role in supplying the high-voltage transformers necessary for the U.S. electrical grid. Their products are integral to maintaining grid reliability and supporting the infrastructure necessary for efficient electricity transmission and distribution.

1. Hitachi Energy:
   • Overview: Hitachi Energy (formerly Hitachi ABB Power Grids) supplies a comprehensive range of power transformers and related components. They are a global company with extensive operations worldwide.
   • Headquarters: Zurich, Switzerland
   • Website: Hitachi Energy
2. Siemens Energy:
   • Overview: Siemens Energy provides various high-voltage transformer solutions and is a significant player in the global energy market.
   • Headquarters: Munich, Germany
   • Website: Siemens Energy
3. Prolec GE:
   • Overview: Prolec GE is a joint venture between Xignux, a Mexican consortium, and GE. They offer transformer solutions tailored to global needs.
   • Headquarters: Monterrey, Mexico

Summary

• US-Based: GE Grid Solutions.
• International: Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, Prolec GE.

Bottom line, one goes down, it’s not easy peezy to replace.  And if 9 of them go down, getting them here is going to be a gargantuan effort. Nine strategically selected, and it’s a whole different story, let alone 30.

While the U.S. has a vast number of transformers integral to its electrical grid, the damage or loss of even a single high-voltage transformer can have serious repercussions. This risk underscores the need for continued investment in grid resilience and modernization efforts. It also underscores the need for those who are interested in self-sufficiency to actually consider a time without electricity as a viable scenario for which we should consider in our self-sufficiency efforts.